Poverty rate expected to drop in Niger by 2026

A difficult economic situation in 2023

In 2023, Niger experienced an increase in the poverty rate to 52%. This deterioration is due to negative economic growth per capita and galloping inflation. The number of people living in extreme poverty rose to 14.1 million, compared to only 1.1 million in 2022. This situation is notably the result of the economic sanctions imposed after the 2023 coup d’état, which caused a significant drop in economic activity.

World Bank forecasts for 2026

In its report of September 30, 2024, the World Bank predicts a gradual decline in the poverty rate in Niger. The international institution anticipates that this rate will increase to 42.5% by 2026. To achieve this objective, the Bank is counting on an increase in agricultural production and a more efficient exploitation of oil revenues, which would directly benefit the Nigerien population.

Impact of sanctions and economic recovery

The coup that overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum led to severe economic and financial sanctions, such as border closures and a freeze on international funding, which heavily impacted the economy. However, the partial lifting of these sanctions in February 2024 has allowed Niger to revive its economy. Growth could reach 5.7% in 2024, according to the World Bank, thanks to the resumption of oil exports.

Differences in forecasts between the World Bank and the IMF

Although the World Bank anticipates a modest recovery, with growth of 5.7% for the current year, the IMF is more optimistic. The latter predicts that Niger’s growth could reach 10.6% in 2024. This difference in forecasts highlights uncertainty about the country’s economic outlook.

Conclusion

The World Bank remains optimistic about a significant reduction in poverty in Niger by 2026, despite recent economic difficulties. The key role of agriculture and the oil sector could turn things around. However, the forecasts diverge from those of the IMF, reflecting uncertainty about the extent of the economic recovery to come.