Sub-Saharan Africa: IMF revises 2025 growth forecast down to 3.8%, impacted by US trade war

A tense global context weakens African economies

In its updated World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downwards its growth projection forsub-Saharan Africa in 2025, now estimated at 3.8%, compared with 4.2% anticipated in January. The downturn comes against the backdrop of a global economic climate weakened by the outbreak of a tariff war led by the United States in early April.

A tariff war with global consequences

The US decision to apply massive tariff hikes to its main partners has led to a series of reprisals, notably from China, fuelling a protectionist spiral. The IMF notes that this new trading environment has slowed global growth forecasts, now estimated at 2.8% in 2025, compared with 3.3% previously.

“Tariffs are now at levels not seen in a century,” warns Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF, adding that the uncertainty generated by these tensions is leading companies to freeze investment and financial institutions to tighten credit conditions.

The impact on major African economies

This global instability is having a direct impact on the region’s economies. In Nigeria, growth for 2025 has been revised to 3.0% (from 3.2% previously), while in South Africa, the slowdown is more marked, with a forecast down 0.5 points to 1.0%. The IMF cites a combination of negative factors: weak performance in 2024, rising protectionism, and a slowdown in the world’s major economies.

Rebound expected in 2026, subject to conditions

However, the IMF remains cautiously optimistic, anticipating a return to growth of 4.2% in 2026 for sub-Saharan Africa. But this projection remains highly uncertain, particularly if the trade war is prolonged or intensifies.

“Trade uncertainty is a global demand shock. It slows down consumption, investment and economic activity as a whole”, concludes Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.