South Sudan: 30% Economic Recession by 2024-2025

Collapse in growth due to interruption of oil exports

Since its independence in 2011, South Sudan has been heavily dependent on the oil sector, which represents the country’s main source of revenue. However, due to the interruption of oil exports, economic growth is expected to contract by 30% in 2024-2025, according to the 7ᵉ Country Economy Report (SSEM) published by the World Bank on March 13, 2025.

An Economic Shock with Disastrous Consequences

The fall in oil revenues, estimated at $7 million a day, has seriously weakened public finances. This loss of revenue has led to delays in salary payments and a reduction in public spending, particularly in the health and education sectors. At the same time, the country is facing hyperinflation and food insecurity, affecting almost 80% of the population. The poverty rate now stands at 92%, according to the World Bank.

A Situation Worsened by Conflict and Climate Shocks

By 2024, some 7.1 million people were suffering from food insecurity, a crisis exacerbated by persistent political tensions, armed conflict and climatic disasters. These factors exacerbate economic and security instability, making recovery even more difficult.

Solutions recommended by the World Bank

Faced with these challenges, the World Bank is recommending several measures to revive the economy of South Sudan:

• Easing the exchange rate to stabilize the currency
• Reducing monetary financing of the deficit
• Greater transparency in oil revenue management
• Diversifying the economy and investing in human capital
• Pay wage arrears to boost consumption

“By maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving governance and implementing strategic structural reforms, South Sudan can unlock the potential of its private sector and pave the way for recovery and prosperity,” said Charles Undeland, World Bank Group Operations Manager for South Sudan.

Hope for recovery in 2025-2026

Despite the current crisis, there are some positive signs of improvement. Fitch Solutions anticipates real GDP growth of 17% in 2025, supported by a recovery in oil production and exports. If the government implements the necessary reforms, the South Sudanese economy could regain positive momentum and begin to emerge from the crisis on a sustainable basis.