South Sudan: 17% growth expected in 2025 after a major crisis

Economic recovery after a difficult year

After contracting by 24.5% in 2024, South Sudan’s economy is set to rebound with growth of 17% in 2025, according to Fitch Solutions. This recovery is mainly due to the revival of oil exports, heavily impacted by the rupture of the Petrodar pipeline in February 2024.

Oil’s key role in the economy

Oil accounts for around 90% of the country’s exports and budget revenues. The civil war in neighboring Sudan paralyzed a strategic oil pipeline, reducing export volumes from 186,000 barrels per day (b/d) in January 2024 to just 58,000 b/d in December. With the pipeline repaired and production gradually restored, the government’s target is to reach 90,000 b/d in the first six months of 2025.

Gradual stabilization of finances

The recovery in exports should lead to an increase in public spending and household consumption. The South Sudanese pound could appreciate against the dollar, while inflation, which reached 115% in 2024, should fall to 30% by the end of 2025.

An encouraging but fragile outlook

While economic recovery is underway, it remains vulnerable to ongoing tensions in neighboring Sudan. South Sudan’s oil infrastructure is still dependent on Sudanese territory, where conflict and fuel shortages pose a major risk to exports and the country’s economic stability.