Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: forecast revised downwards for 2024
In its latest report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjusted its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 3.6% in 2024, down slightly from the 3.8% projected in April. This slowdown of 0.2 percentage points comes against a backdrop of marked economic challenges, despite the stability of the global growth forecast at 3.2% for the same period.
Causes of the slowdown: Nigeria and South Sudan in difficulty
The IMF attributes this downward revision mainly to Nigeria’s weak economic performance in the first half of 2024. Growth in the region’s largest economy was revised down by 0.4 percentage points, from 3.3% to 2.9%, due to its dependence on the oil sector and high inflation. Meanwhile, South Sudan suffered a major setback with its economy contracting by 26%, a direct consequence of the ongoing conflicts in the country.
South Africa: A slight improvement in the outlook
Unlike Nigeria, South Africa has a positive revision of its economic forecast for 2024, from 0.9% to 1.1%. This slight improvement is explained by a stabilization of the energy environment, which has favored the mining and industrial sectors, which are particularly dependent on energy.
Persistent challenges for growth in sub-Saharan Africa
The IMF highlights that the region faces major obstacles that are holding back its growth. Internal conflicts, inflationary pressures, and disruptions to global supply chains, exacerbated by climate change, pose significant challenges to economic development. Despite these challenges, the growth projection for 2025 has been slightly raised to 4.2 percent, signaling hope for a gradual recovery.
Conclusion
Although sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is revised downward for 2024, the forecast for 2025 shows a slight improvement. This optimistic outlook will depend on the ability of regional economies to manage structural challenges and the effects of internal crises, in order to maintain sustainable growth despite the obstacles.
