In its updated World Economic Outlook<\/strong> report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)<\/strong> has revised downwards its growth projection forsub-Saharan Africa in 2025<\/strong>, now estimated at 3.8%<\/strong>, compared with 4.2%<\/strong> anticipated in January. The downturn comes against the backdrop of a global economic climate weakened by the outbreak of a tariff war<\/strong> led by the United States<\/strong> in early April. <\/p>\n\n The US decision to apply massive tariff hikes<\/strong> to its main partners has led to a series of reprisals, notably from China<\/strong>, fuelling a protectionist spiral. The IMF notes that this new trading environment has slowed global growth forecasts<\/strong>, now estimated at 2.8% in 2025<\/strong>, compared with 3.3%<\/strong> previously. <\/p>\n\n “Tariffs are now at levels not seen in a century,” warns Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF, adding that the uncertainty generated by these tensions is leading companies to freeze investment<\/strong> and financial institutions to tighten credit conditions<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n This global instability is having a direct impact on the region’s economies. In Nigeria<\/strong>, growth for 2025 has been revised to 3.0%<\/strong> (from 3.2% previously), while in South Africa<\/strong>, the slowdown is more marked, with a forecast down 0.5 points<\/strong> to 1.0%<\/strong>. The IMF cites a combination of negative factors: weak performance in 2024<\/strong>, rising protectionism<\/strong>, and a slowdown in the world’s major economies<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n However, the IMF remains cautiously optimistic, anticipating a return to growth of 4.2% in 2026<\/strong> for sub-Saharan Africa. But this projection remains highly uncertain<\/strong>, particularly if the trade war is prolonged or intensifies. <\/p>\n\n “Trade uncertainty is a global demand shock. It slows down consumption, investment and economic activity as a whole”, concludes Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A tense global context weakens African economies In its updated World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downwards its growth projection forsub-Saharan Africa in 2025, now estimated at 3.8%, compared with 4.2% anticipated in January. The downturn comes against the backdrop of a global economic climate weakened by the outbreak of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9024,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-africa","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nA tariff war with global consequences<\/h3>\n\n
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The impact on major African economies<\/h3>\n\n
Rebound expected in 2026, subject to conditions<\/h3>\n\n