Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic growth forecast at 3% for 2024
Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth is projected to reach 3% in 2024 , according to the World Bank’s “Africa’s Pulse” report released on October 14, 2024. While this forecast is down from the previous estimate of 3.4% in April, it reflects the notable impacts of the drop in economic activity in Sudan, which is weighing on the region’s overall performance. Nevertheless, the World Bank is optimistic about a possible recovery, supported by an increase in private consumption and a decrease in inflation in several countries in the region.
Growth by sub-region: variable dynamism
The Eastern and Southern Africa subregion is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2024, marking a slight recovery after a difficult 2023 (1.7%). However, the economic weight of countries such as Angola and South Africa remains a drag on the region’s overall growth. Without these two economies, the region could achieve a more sustained growth rate, with a forecast of 2.6% for 2024.
In West and Central Africa, the outlook is slightly more favourable: growth is expected to increase from 3.3% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024. If Nigeria, the region’s economic powerhouse, is excluded, the growth rate could even rise to 4.8% . In this region, several countries are expected to record dynamic growth, including Côte d’Ivoire ( 6.5% ), Niger ( 5.7% ) and Senegal ( 6.1% ).
Issues and challenges of growth in sub-Saharan Africa
Despite these encouraging prospects, the World Bank highlights the fragility of economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. It remains vulnerable to armed conflicts and extreme climatic events, such as droughts, floods and cyclones, which pose major risks to the economic stability of the region.
To counter these challenges, many African states are embarking on structural reforms focused on combating corruption, developing infrastructure and adapting to climate change. These efforts aim to build more sustainable and inclusive growth, in a context of gradually moderating inflation.
Medium-term outlook: recovery potential for 2025-2026
The World Bank’s forecast for 2025-2026 indicates a possible acceleration in growth, with an estimate of 4% on average for this period, a slight increase from the previous estimate of 3.5% . This recovery could be driven by falling inflation, creating an environment conducive to economic recovery in the region.
Conclusion
Sub-Saharan Africa shows moderate but promising growth prospects for 2024, despite the economic, climate, and geopolitical challenges facing the region. Structural reform efforts, infrastructure optimization, and increased focus on sustainability show that the region is striving for resilient growth. With inflation expected to decline and economic strengthening initiatives underway, Sub-Saharan Africa could see a gradual recovery from 2025, supporting more robust economic gains in the medium term.
