Guinea: Mamadi Doumbouya, towards a presidential candidacy despite the bans?
Statement by the Spokesperson for the Presidency on a possible candidacy
On Friday, September 21, 2023, during a press lunch, General Amara Camara, spokesperson for the Guinean presidency, clearly expressed his support for a possible candidacy of the current transitional president, Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya, in the next presidential election. He stated: “If Mamadi Doumbouya wants to be a candidate, I will encourage him. Not only does he have the possibility in terms of rights, but he also has the required quality today.” According to Camara, current legislation does not impose any legal restrictions preventing Doumbouya from running in the upcoming elections.
These statements quickly sparked debate, as the “transition charter,” established after the September 2021 military coup, explicitly states that no member of the transitional government can run in national or local elections. However, this charter could soon be amended by the adoption of a new constitution, thus allowing Doumbouya to run for a presidential mandate.
Towards a new Constitution to lift the ban?
The military authorities in power in Guinea presented a preliminary draft of a constitution in July 2023, the aim of which is to redefine the country’s institutional framework. This text must be submitted to a referendum, potentially by the end of the year. However, no official date has yet been set for this popular consultation, and the preliminary draft is already facing strong opposition. The main political parties as well as several civil society organizations reject this text, believing that it would allow the military to prolong its hold on power.
General Mamadi Doumbouya, who had publicly promised on several occasions not to run for president after the coup, could nevertheless renege on this commitment if the new Constitution allows it. This hypothesis is increasingly plausible, especially after recent statements by several members of the government that suggest a relaxation of the rules concerning the candidacy of transitional leaders.
A postponement of the return to constitutional order
At the time of the coup, the military authorities had committed under pressure from the international community to hold elections and hand over power to elected civilians by the end of 2024. However, this commitment now appears to be in jeopardy. The transitional authorities recently announced that all elections aimed at restoring constitutional order in Guinea will not take place until 2025. This announcement, made by Guinean Foreign Minister Morissanda Kouyaté to diplomats and representatives of the Francophonie in Paris, has raised many questions.
The minister also indicated that the presidential election could be organized first, even before the adoption of the new Constitution. “Since it is at the level of the supreme judiciary that the populations and the international community better perceive democratic progress, we could even start with the presidential election as a pledge of commitment,” he said.
Mamadi Doumbouya towards an early candidacy?
Amara Camara also suggested that the government could agree to hold the presidential election before the finalization of the new Constitution. “Guineans today are thirsty to see the face of their future president (…) The government is open to any request to allow the elections to be held, even if it means starting with the presidential election,” he added.
These signals show a move towards the organisation of elections, but with the possibility that Mamadi Doumbouya could run, despite the initial provisions of the transitional charter.
Repression and political challenges in Guinea
The political climate in Guinea remains tense, marked by increasing repression of political opponents. Since the military took power in 2021, anti-government protests have been banned, and critical media have come under increasing pressure. Many opposition leaders have been arrested, tried, or forced into exile. The disappearances of two members of a citizens’ movement in July, who were demanding the return of civilians to power, have further increased tensions in the country.
The Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA) has opened several investigations into reported unlawful arrests and disappearances following the 2023 protests. Meanwhile, NGOs estimate that at least 60 people died in police crackdowns on protests against the military’s continued rule.
Conclusion
Guinea is at a major political turning point, as the military transition drags on and discussions emerge around a possible presidential candidacy by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya. Although the transition charter theoretically prohibits this possibility, a new Constitution could lift these restrictions. The question of the electoral calendar remains unclear, but the authorities seem to favor an early presidential election before the adoption of the Constitution. In a context of political tensions and repression, the future of the Guinean transition remains uncertain, and Doumbouya’s candidacy could well redefine the political balance of the country.
